Report
Norway Real Estate Market Outlook 2023
February 9, 2023
The Norwegian CRE investment market experienced a year of two halves as transaction volume in the first half of 2022 nearly matched the exceptional 2021. Changed market conditions changed in the second half of the year and activity slowed down as interest rates started to rise on the back of soaring inflation.
Norwegian economy was resilient and surprised positively in 2022. Falling energy prices has lightened the inflation outlook, but business and consumer confidence indicators points to challenging times ahead. Household economy is under pressure from increased interest rates and inflation.
Investment activity is expected to remain slow in the beginning of 2023 but could be set for a recovery in the second half of the year as price expectations stabilizes. Availability and cost of financing will be key to activity. We expect cross-border activity to increase as NOK hedging cost is decreasing.
Economy
Economic growth to fall but remain in positive territory for the year. Inflation to come down towards the end of 2023.
Investment
We expect activity to remain slow in the coming months before new price discovery lifts the transaction market in the second half of the year.
Sustainability
ESG is the new normal in the Nordics 75% of investors have already adopted ESG criteria in the decision-making process. In 2023, the focus on sustainability issues will intensify.
Offices
Slow development of new stock, low vacancy, and high tenant demand pushed office rents up by 11.4% YoY. Office transaction volume took a hit of 58.3 % YoY.
Retail
Retail sales recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 despite worsening consumer confidence and cost crunch from inflation.
Industrial and logistics
Industrial and logistics sector continues strong growth in 2022. Supply-demand imbalance has pushed prime rents to NOK 1,800.
Residential
Residential investments almost halved in 2022, but the stability of the multifamily product will be an attractive investment alternative in 2023.
Hotels
Attractively located hotels with solid operators will remain a good investment product.
Norwegian economy was resilient and surprised positively in 2022. Falling energy prices has lightened the inflation outlook, but business and consumer confidence indicators points to challenging times ahead. Household economy is under pressure from increased interest rates and inflation.
Investment activity is expected to remain slow in the beginning of 2023 but could be set for a recovery in the second half of the year as price expectations stabilizes. Availability and cost of financing will be key to activity. We expect cross-border activity to increase as NOK hedging cost is decreasing.
Highlights
Economy
Economic growth to fall but remain in positive territory for the year. Inflation to come down towards the end of 2023.
Investment
We expect activity to remain slow in the coming months before new price discovery lifts the transaction market in the second half of the year.
Sustainability
ESG is the new normal in the Nordics 75% of investors have already adopted ESG criteria in the decision-making process. In 2023, the focus on sustainability issues will intensify.
Offices
Slow development of new stock, low vacancy, and high tenant demand pushed office rents up by 11.4% YoY. Office transaction volume took a hit of 58.3 % YoY.
Retail
Retail sales recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 despite worsening consumer confidence and cost crunch from inflation.
Industrial and logistics
Industrial and logistics sector continues strong growth in 2022. Supply-demand imbalance has pushed prime rents to NOK 1,800.
Residential
Residential investments almost halved in 2022, but the stability of the multifamily product will be an attractive investment alternative in 2023.
Hotels
Attractively located hotels with solid operators will remain a good investment product.